Fertilizer Markets and Finance

On this blog I make posts about what's new in the fertilizer industry and how it's markets are affected by geopolitical developments, environmental changes and monetary policies. This blog also focuses on developments in major fertilizer companies such as Potash Corp, Mosaic, Agrium, Uralkali and BPC. Thanks for viewing.

Jonathan Mohan


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Britain will be forced to become a net importer of wheat for the first time in a decade this year, after the recent bitter weather devastated crops.

A disastrous 12-month cycle of poor weather has ruined harvests across the UK, costing farmers an estimated £500m, the chief economist of the National Farmers Union (NFU) warned.

The conditions mean Britain – traditionally a significant net exporter of wheat – will have to boost imports by more than a million tonnes.

While the effect on the price of a loaf of bread is expected to be minimal, the dismal harvests will increase the country’s reliance on the secretive trading firms which dominate the international grain market.

The crop damage deals a further blow to Britain’s beleaguered farming industry, which is already reeling from a spate of recent livestock deaths due to the cold weather. To make matters worse, the weather has made planting new crops more difficult and damaged many of the seeds that have been sown in recent weeks.

Read more at The Independent

The Financialization of Food. Sasha Breger Bush: In the name of democratizing finance, derivative exchanges are achieving the opposite

A new report has recently come from the United Nations marking the fertilizer crisis that the author of the report said the world is facing. They claim that an imbalance has started occurring with far too little use of fertilizers in some places, and far too much in others.

The report “Our Nutrient World” is issued today. In the report, experts have warned that the fertilizers are not being used properly across the world, which has started creating an imbalance in the eco system.

Plant growth needs an adequate application of nitrogen, phosphorus and other nutrients, an increase or decrease can start doing a trouble. Similar have become the concerns of the professionals too because they have noticed that plant growth, which is very beneficial for world food and energy production, is affected due to improper use of fertilizers.

They fear that the imbalance has not only started causing a web of water or air pollution but also, it has started affecting the human health. More of toxic algal blooms and killing of fish has become a big threat for our sensitive ecosystem. And, this is what is mostly affecting climate change too, mentions the report.

There are also some parts of the world, which have insufficient access to fertilizers, added the report.

It’s now time that the concerned authorities and departments call for a major global rethink upon how to efficiently use fertilizers across the world, suggests report.

John Gibbons on global agribusiness & the supply-demand imbalance at Future Farm Americas John Gibbons, President of Olam Americas, gave a talk at last year’s Future Farm Americas titled “Keynote address: From ABCD to NOW: leading the way in global agribusiness & combating the supply-demand imbalance”.

Future Farm Americas is the leading technology and innovation event for agribusiness and suppliers. Farming companies, agribusiness, investors and technology providers will come together to see the latest products and new advances in ‘Smart’ farming.

For more information, go to www.terrapinn.com/farmamericas. Or, check out our blog at blogs.terrapinn.com/total-asset for up to date information on the agribusiness sector.

Tim Wise and Sophia Murphy: More than a billion people without food security need action on speculation, biofuels, land grabs, climate change and low levels of public food reserves

Grocery Bills on the Rise TWILA TV’s Neil Melancon tells us why we may see a spike in grocery store prices this year.

Almost-finalised plans for exporting Indian wheat to Iran, touted as a major initiative as part of rupee-payment for Iran oil, remain a non-starter.

Under the rupee payment mechanism, 45% of the oil import bill from Iran is credited in rupees and at present Iran has US $5 billion in rupees in the account from this. The rupee trade for oil means Iran has to make use of that money in India. Out of the US $15.94 billion in 2012, Indian exports accounted for just US $2.40 billion.

With US sanctions looming large over Iran for its nuclear programme, New Delhi is worried about its export basket not expanding to make use of the rising rupee payment.

The plan was agreed upon during prime minister Manmohan Singh’s visit to Iran last year, but both sides are yet to sort out the quality issues so they can enter into a long-term arrangement for wheat export.

The quality issue is with regard to a fungal disease, known as ‘Karnal bunt’, in Indian wheat. Iran had stopped buying wheat from India in 1996 alleging high levels of Karnal bunt in grain.

India has subsequently argued that its wheat has internationally permissible levels of Karnal bunt and that Iran was using a similar yardstick of quality for wheat from USA.

NEW DELHI: Food Corporation of India (FCI) is sending a delegation to study wheat exports with international wheat buyers in Singapore and Australia. The visit is significant as the food agency is keen to clear its choked warehouses ahead of the new harvest in April.

The delegation, led by FCI CMD Amar Singh, will also study gradation system, silo storage and port operations in these countries. “It’s only three months left for the fresh harvest. We need to evacuate the warehouses to create space. Our delegation will not only explore export opportunities but also study technical aspects of grainBSE 3.74 % handling, port operations, logistics and scientific storage,” said a senior food ministry official.

The delegation will also study quality up-gradation of wheat to make Indian wheat competent against the crops of Australia and Ukrainian. India exports wheat to South Korea, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Thailand andMalaysia.

“Indian wheat draws lesser price than that of Australia and Ukrainian due to quality issues. Most of them are related to post-harvest management. We want to implement the best global practices to upgrade the quality. We need more markets to clear the surplus stock,” the official added.

India is preparing to export a record 9.5 million tonne wheat in the current fiscal year from the government stock. The government has already allowed 4.5 million tonne export.

“We are considering allowing private players to draw from government stocks to speed up exports. We need to make room for fresh harvest,” said Union Food Minister KV Thomas.

The government is skeptical about the storage facilities ahead of the new harvest, which promises a record production. The government is sitting on a huge pile of wheat stock of 38 million tonne and it is likely to procure another 40 million tonne this season - up from last year’s purchase of 39 million tonne. At present, the government has a storage capacity of around 71 million tonne including 18 million tonne of cover and plinth capacity that can’t keep the grains intact for more than a few weeks.

image

India exports wheat to South Korea, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Thailand and Malaysia.

Something about the price of fertilizer doesn’t smell quite right to farmers. Growers in the Rocky Mountain region have asked the U.S. Department of Agriculture to investigate possible price fixing in the chemical-fertilizer industry.

It’s not just that fertilizer prices are near record highs, farmers say. The bigger concern is that natural gas, a main feedstock for nitrogen fertilizers, is priced near a 10-year low.

Farmers believe that low prices of natural gas should be reflected in their cost of fertilizer.

The price of anhydrous ammonia, a common nitrogen-based agricultural fertilizer, hasjumped 50 percent since 2006. But during the same period, natural gas prices have fallen by 60 percent.

“Historically, cheap natural gas equals cheap anhydrous ammonia,” said Yuma County corn farmer Mike Bowman. “But we have seen that correlation disappear.”

The Rocky Mountain Farmers Union, representing growers in Colorado, New Mexico and Wyoming, announced at a recent convention that it is asking for a price-fixing investigation.

The disconnect between natural gas and fertilizer prices “is siphoning millions of dollars from the U.S. agriculture economy,” the farmers organization said in a statement.

The USDA did not respond to questions Wednesday on the farmers’ concerns of price fixing. A representative of the Fertilizer Institute, a Washington, D.C., association representing the industry, did not return calls.

Read more at denverpost.com

Manure is spread on a cornfield at Eckhardt Farms in Weld County. Owner Dave Eckhardt uses manure and nitrogen fertilizer, the cost for which is near a record high. (Helen H. Richardson, The Denver Post)

South African wheat futures rose for a third day as global prices climbed on concern that cold weather in Russia and a persistent drought in the U.S. will curb global supplies.

Wheat for March delivery, the most active contract, increased 0.4 percent to 3,644.20 rand ($412) a metric ton by the close on the South African Futures Exchange in Johannesburg.

Wheat climbed to a one-month high on the Chicago Board of trade as winter-kill caused by freezing temperatures affected 9 percent of the 15.7 million hectares (38.8 million acres) sown with winter grains in Russia, the Agriculture Ministry said yesterday. Drought may persist in the U.S. Great Plains and spread across Texas in the next three months, according to the Climate Prediction Center.

“We are following the international prices as they are up today on concern of dry weather,” Brink van Wyk, a trader at BVG (Pty) Ltd., said by phone from Pretoria.

South Africa is a net importer of wheat and sub-Saharan Africa’s largest producer after Ethiopia. The country imported 30,972 tons of the grain in the week to Jan. 18, Pretoria-based South African Grain Information Service said in a statement on its website today.

White corn gained 1.1 percent to 2,227 rand a ton, while the yellow variety increased 1.1 percent 2,146 rand a ton.

To contact the reporter on this story: Tshepiso Mokhema in Johannesburg attmokhema@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Antony Sguazzin at asguazzin@bloomberg.net

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Australia & New Zealand Bank set a fresh low for expectations for the Australian wheat crop, whose woes are gaining increasing global market attention, warning that dryness has put it on course for a five-year low.

Paul Deane, senior ag economist at ANZ, said that the bank was expecting an Australian wheat crop of about 20m tonnes, some 3m tonnes below its previous forecast, cautioning over the dryness which has hurt parts of the eastern crop besides Western Australia, the top grain-growing state.

In New South Wales, “there are certainly some areas that are struggling”, while in the Mallee region of Victoria “did not have ready rainfall”.

While there was scope for some repair to these crops, and a higher national figure, in Western Australia, where drought has received more attention, “certainly for the north wheat belt, the damage has been done.

“Crops are past their key point” when rains might restore yields, Mr Deane told Agrimoney.com, estimating the state’s crop at roughly 6m tonnes, a near-halving year on year.

Read more at Agrimoney

U.S. farmers struggling through the worst drought in a half century are less optimistic about their circumstances and more hopeful about the future than they were in March, a survey byDTN/The Progressive Farmer shows.

Farmers evaluated their present conditions at a score of 120.4, down from 140.2 earlier this year, industry researcher and publisher DTN said today. Expectations for a year from now registered 98.2, up from 87.4. In a separate survey, agribusinesses rated conditions now at 112.2 and in a year at 80.5, both down from February. The benchmark rating of 100 was set in 2010 when the analysis began.

“This year will be a tougher year for us,” said Dietrich Kastens, who said he’ll have “significant losses” with the wheat, corn, sorghum and peas he’s raising on more than 10,000 acres (4,046 hectares) near Herndon, Kansas. Still, “the future looks good,” he said. “I anticipate that farming will continue to see some pretty good times.”

The U.S. Department of Agriculture has declared natural disasters in more than 1,800 counties in 35 states, more than half the nation’s total, mostly because of drought. Still, U.S. netfarm income may reach an all-time high of $122.2 billion this year, the USDA said last week, as record corn and soybeans prices overcome yield losses.

Read more at Bloomberg

Daniel Acker/Bloomberg

A farmer walks through a drought damaged corn field in Carmi, Illinois. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has declared natural disasters in more than 1,800 counties in 35 states, more than half the nation’s total, mostly because of drought.

French farm-production costs rose 2.4 percent in July as growers and livestock breeders paid more for energy and fuel, feed and fertilizer, the Agriculture Ministry said.

An index of agricultural-input costs averaged 132.4 for the month, against 129.4 a year earlier, the ministry reported today on its website.

Energy and lubricant expenses, making up about 11 percent of the gauge, jumped 3.3 percent, according to the report. The cost of animal feed, with an index weighting of about 25 percent, climbed 2.7 percent.

“The price of animal feed continues to progress since February,” the ministry wrote. “Those for energy and lubricants again head up, after having declined during the second quarter.”

The index for fertilizer, accounting for 12 percent of farming costs, rose 2.9 percent and expenses for seeds and planting material advanced 3.5 percent, the report showed.

Production costs for commodity crops, a subgroup of farming expenses, gained 3.7 percent, while livestock and dairy producers’ costs rose 2.5 percent, the ministry said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Rudy Ruitenberg in Paris at rruitenberg@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Claudia Carpenter atccarpenter2@bloomberg.net

MONSANTO is the worlds leader in genetically modified organisms (GMOs). This 100 year old empire has created some of the most toxic products ever sold, including polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and the herbicide AGENT ORANGE. 

This never before told story of misleading reports, collusion, pressure tactics and attempts at corruption, makes up the history of this global corporation. Behind its clean green image, MONSANTO is now tightening its grasp on the world seed market, striving to for market domination resulting in a detriment to food security and the global environment.

See the full documentary